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pk10怎么看走势图选号:下一场战争: 大国冲突的危险越来越大

时间:2018/2/3 21:21:45  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:The next war下一场战争The growing danger of great-power conflict大国冲突的危险越来越大How shifts in technology and geopolitics are renewing the threat科技和地缘政...
The next war

下一场战争

The growing danger of great-power conflict

大国冲突的危险越来越大

How shifts in technology and geopolitics are renewing the threat

科技和地缘政治的变化如何使战争危险重现?

pk10怎么看走势图选号:下一场战争:_大国冲突的危险越来越大

IN THE past 25 years war has claimed too many lives. Yet even as civil and religious strife have raged in Syria, central Africa, Afghanistan and Iraq, a devastating clash between the world’s great powers has remained almost unimaginable.

在过去25年里,战争夺走了太多人的生命。尽管叙利亚、中非、阿富汗、伊拉克仍在上演内战和宗教冲突,但大国之间的毁灭性冲突仍然难以想象。

No longer. Last week the Pentagon issued a new national defence strategy that put China and Russia above jihadism as the main threat to America. This week the chief of Britain’s general staff warned of a Russian attack. Even now America and North Korea are perilously close to a conflict that risks dragging in China or escalating into nuclear catastrophe.

不再如此。上周五角大楼发布了新的国防战略,将中国和俄罗斯列为美国的头号威胁,超过了圣战运动。本周,英国总参谋长警告来自俄罗斯的攻击。美国和朝鲜正处在危险的冲突边缘,中国可能被拖入战争,甚至演变成核灾难。

As our special report this week on the future of war argues, powerful, long-term shifts in geopolitics and the proliferation of new technologies are eroding the extraordinary military dominance that America and its allies have enjoyed. Conflict on a scale and intensity not seen since the second world war is once again plausible. The world is not prepared.

正如本期关于未来战争的“特别报道”所言,地缘政治的长期强烈变化和新技术的传播正在削弱美国及其盟友的军事主导地位。二战结束后,未发生过一定规模和强度的冲突,现在又有了可能,世界尚未做好准备。

The pity of war

The pressing danger is of war on the Korean peninsula, perhaps this year. Donald Trump has vowed to prevent Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, from being able to strike America with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, a capability that recent tests suggest he may have within months, if not already. Among many contingency plans, the Pentagon is considering a disabling pre-emptive strike against the North’s nuclear sites. Despite low confidence in the success of such a strike, it must be prepared to carry out the president’s order should he give it.

战争的悲悯

迫在眉睫的战争危险是朝鲜半岛,今年可能爆发。唐纳德•特朗普发誓要阻止朝鲜领导人金正恩具备用核弹头弹道导弹攻击美国的能力,近期导弹试验显示数月内朝鲜就能具备这种能力,尽管现在没有。五角大楼制定了许多应急方案,包括对朝鲜核基地发动先发制人的瘫痪性打击。五角大楼对攻击成功率没有太大信心,但必须准备好执行总统的命令。

Even a limited attack could trigger all-out war. Analysts reckon that North Korean artillery can bombard Seoul, the South Korean capital, with 10,000 rounds a minute. Drones, midget submarines and tunnelling commandos could deploy biological, chemical and even nuclear weapons. Tens of thousands of people would perish; many more if nukes were used.

有限的攻击可能引发全面战争。分析人士指出,朝鲜能以1万发/分钟的强度炮击韩国首都首尔。朝鲜可利用无人机、袖珍潜艇、隧道突击队部署生化甚至核武器。数万人会阵亡,如果使用核武器,阵亡人数会更多。

This newspaper has argued that the prospect of such horror means that, if diplomacy fails, North Korea should be contained and deterred instead. Although we stand by our argument, war is a real possibility (see article). Mr Trump and his advisers may conclude that a nuclear North would be so reckless, and so likely to cause nuclear proliferation, that it is better to risk war on the Korean peninsula today than a nuclear strike on an American city tomorrow.

本刊认为,这种可怕前景意味着如果外交手段失败,应该做的是遏制朝鲜。尽管我们支持这一观点,但确实可能爆发战争。特朗普先生和他的智囊可能得出这样的结论:拥有核武的朝鲜会肆无忌惮,并有可能导致核扩散,因此宁愿现在冒朝鲜战争的危险,也好过未来美国城市遭受核打击。

Even if China stays out of a second Korean war, both it and Russia are entering into a renewal of great-power competition with the West. Their ambitions will be even harder to deal with than North Korea’s. Three decades of unprecedented economic growth have provided China with the wealth to transform its armed forces, and given its leaders the sense that their moment has come. Russia, paradoxically, needs to assert itself now because it is in long-term decline. Its leaders have spent heavily to restore Russia’s hard power, and they are willing to take risks to prove they deserve respect and a seat at the table.

即使中国不参加第二次朝鲜战争,它和俄罗斯也在与西方再次展开大国竞赛。相比朝鲜,中俄的野心更难应对。三十年来前所未有的经济增长使中国有财力去变革军队,使中国领导人觉得契机来了。矛盾的是,俄罗斯需要彰显自身实力,因为它陷入了长期衰退。俄罗斯领导人不惜血本恢复国家硬实力,他们甘冒风险证明自己应得到尊重和一席之地。

Both countries have benefited from the international order that America did most to establish and guarantee. But they see its pillars—universal human rights, democracy and the rule of law—as an imposition that excuses foreign meddling and undermines their own legitimacy. They are now revisionist states that want to challenge the status quo and look at their regions as spheres of influence to be dominated. For China, that means East Asia; for Russia, eastern Europe and Central Asia.

中俄两国都从主要由美国建立和维护的国际秩序中受益,但它们认为国际秩序的支柱,即普世人权、民主、法治是不合理的要求,成为对外干涉和破坏中俄合法性的借口。现在中俄是想挑战现状的修正主义国家,将它们所处的地区视为自己的势力范围。对中国来说,这意味着东亚;对俄罗斯来说,意味着东欧和中亚。

Neither China nor Russia wants a direct military confrontation with America that they would surely lose. But they are using their growing hard power in other ways, in particular by exploiting a “grey zone” where aggression and coercion work just below the level that would risk military confrontation with the West. In Ukraine Russia has blended force, misinformation, infiltration, cyberwar and economic blackmail in ways that democratic societies cannot copy and find hard to rebuff. China is more cautious, but it has claimed, occupied and garrisoned reefs and shoals in disputed waters.

中国和俄罗斯都不想与美国发生直接的军事冲突,因为注定会输。但它们以其他方式利用逐渐强大的硬实力,尤其是利用侵略和胁迫能够奏效,但不与西方发生军事冲突的“灰色地带”。在乌克兰,俄罗斯联合运用军事、假情报、渗透、网络战、经济勒索手段,民主社会无法效仿、难以挫败这些方式。中国更为谨慎,但宣称对争议海域已被占领和驻军的暗礁和浅滩拥有主权。

China and Russia have harnessed military technologies invented by America, such as long-range precision-strike and electromagnetic-spectrum warfare, to raise the cost of intervention against them dramatically. Both have used asymmetric-warfare strategies to create “anti-access/area denial” networks. China aims to push American naval forces far out into the Pacific where they can no longer safely project power into the East and South China Seas. Russia wants the world to know that, from the Arctic to the Black Sea, it can call on greater firepower than its foes—and that it will not hesitate to do so.

中国和俄罗斯都在使用美国发明的军事技术,例如远程精确打击和电磁战,从而极大增加美国的干预代价。两国都利用非对称战争策略来打造“反介入和区域封锁”网络。中国旨在将美国海军逐出太平洋,进而无法向中国东海和南海安全的投送军事力量。俄罗斯想让世界明白,从北极到黑海,俄罗斯能召集比对手更强大的火力,而且会毫不犹豫的这么做。

If America allows China and Russia to establish regional hegemonies, either consciously or because its politics are too dysfunctional to muster a response, it will have given them a green light to pursue their interests by brute force. When that was last tried, the result was the first world war.

如果美国允许中国和俄罗斯建立地区霸权,有意为之也好,因政治无能而无法应对也罢,都将给它们以暴力追求利益开绿灯。上次试过这种做法,结果爆发了第一次世界大战。

Nuclear weapons, largely a source of stability since 1945, may add to the danger. Their command-and-control systems are becoming vulnerable to hacking by new cyber-weapons or “blinding” of the satellites they depend on. A country under such an attack could find itself under pressure to choose between losing control of its nuclear weapons or using them.

1945年以来,核武器在很大程度上起到稳定作用,现在可能增加了战争危险。核武器指挥控制系统易受新型网络武器的入侵,它们依赖的卫星容易被“致盲”。当一个国家遭受此类攻击时,在压力下要么任凭核武器失控,要么使用核武器。

Vain citadels

What should America do? Almost 20 years of strategic drift has played into the hands of Russia and China. George W. Bush’s unsuccessful wars were a distraction and sapped support at home for America’s global role. Barack Obama pursued a foreign policy of retrenchment, and was openly sceptical about the value of hard power. Today, Mr Trump says he wants to make America great again, but is going about it in exactly the wrong way. He shuns multilateral organisations, treats alliances as unwanted baggage and openly admires the authoritarian leaders of America’s adversaries. It is as if Mr Trump wants America to give up defending the system it created and to join Russia and China as just another truculent revisionist power instead.

徒劳的堡垒

美国应该怎么办?近20年的战略转向使俄罗斯和中国有了可乘之机。乔治•沃克•布什的战争失败分散了注意力,削弱了国内对美国全球作用的支持。巴拉克•奥巴马在外交上采取撤退政策,并公然质疑硬实力的价值。如今特朗普先生说想让美国重新变得伟大,走的路线却南辕北辙。他回避多边组织,把盟友视为累赘,公然羡慕美国敌对国家的独裁领导人。特朗普先生似乎想让美国放弃维护自己创立的制度,成为像俄罗斯和中国那样好斗的修正主义大国。

America needs to accept that it is a prime beneficiary of the international system and that it is the only power with the ability and the resources to protect it from sustained attack. The soft power of patient and consistent diplomacy is vital, but must be backed by the hard power that China and Russia respect. America retains plenty of that hard power, but it is fast losing the edge in military technology that inspired confidence in its allies and fear in its foes.

美国需要承认自身是这一国际体制的主要受益者,只有美国有能力和资源保护它免受持续的攻击。耐心一贯的外交软实力至关重要,但必须有中俄推崇的硬实力作为支撑。美国维持着大量的硬实力,但在迅速失去军事技术优势,这种优势给予盟友信心,使对手感到畏惧。

To match its diplomacy, America needs to invest in new systems based on robotics, artificial intelligence, big data and directed-energy weapons. Belatedly, Mr Obama realised that America required a concerted effort to regain its technological lead, yet there is no guarantee that it will be the first to innovate. Mr Trump and his successors need to redouble the effort.

为了支撑外交,美国需要投资基于机器人学、人工智能、大数据、定向能武器的新型系统。奥巴马先生后知后觉的意识到,美国需要齐心协力恢复科技领先地位,但无法保证率先创新。特朗普先生和他的继任者需要在这方面加倍努力。

The best guarantor of world peace is a strong America. Fortunately, it still enjoys advantages. It has rich and capable allies, still by far the world’s most powerful armed forces, unrivalled war-fighting experience, the best systems engineers and the world’s leading tech firms. Yet those advantages could all too easily be squandered. Without America’s commitment to the international order and the hard power to defend it against determined and able challengers, the dangers will grow. If they do, the future of war could be closer than you think.

世界和平的最好保证是强大的美国。幸运的是,美国仍保持着优势:富裕而有能力的盟友、迄今世界最强大的武装力量、无与伦比的作战经验、最优秀的系统工程师、全球领先的科技企业。但这些优势可能被轻易浪费,除非美国恪守国际秩序,拥有硬实力来维护国际秩序,免受有决心和能力的挑战者的破坏,否则危险会与日俱增,那么未来战争可能比你想象中的更近。


网友评论

DidomykFeb 2nd, 00:34
Nobody should ignore Putin's new Youth Force, formed mainly of school youth patterned on well known HITLER Jugend ( that supplied trained recruits to WAFFEN SS Corp, ) It is believed to be a sign of increasing militarisation of Russian youth with recruit numbering some 190,000.
This Putin SS Jugend , officially named “YunArmia”, was only started in May 2016 with membership set to hit 200,000 by the time Putin is re-elected as president next month.

任何人不要忽视普京的新青年力量,主要由学校青年组成,效仿的是众所周知的“希特勒青年团”(向纳粹党卫军输送训练有素的新成员)。人们相信这标志着俄罗斯青年的日益军事化,现有成员约19万人。这支“普京青年党卫军”被官方称为“YunArmia”,成立于2016年,普京下月再次当选总统时,成员将达20万人。

y@yyyyHin reply to JustBeGoodFeb 2nd, 05:22
[JustBeGoodFeb 1st, 09:36
This last also defeat the entire message of the article. Trump is not the president that can understand this or go down that road. Putin and Xi know this, and they support him to the hilt, in the hope that he will destroy America and take down the current world order, allowing Russia and China to establish their new empires.Don't reigning empires always do that when their time is up?

文章最后一句使全文失去意义。特朗普总统不会明白这一点,也不会走那样的道路。普京和习明白这一点,所以全力支持他,希望他毁掉美国和现有世界秩序,这样俄罗斯和中国才能建立新的帝国。历史上穷途末路的帝国不都是这样吗?

JustBeGoodin reply to y@yyyyH2 hours 42 mins ago
Probably, and the powers that take over when empires fall apart are most often extremely brutal, usually significantly less civilised and even more chauvinist.

有这个可能,历史上每当帝国覆灭,取而代之的帝国往往残暴至极,文明极其落后,甚至更崇尚沙文主义。

pksliuJan 30th, 03:39
This article by The Economist is so unbalanced and anti-China/Russia that the best place to put it is in the garbage bin!
From fellow British Citizen and Hong Kong National.

经济学人的这篇文章太不公平、过于反华和反俄,最好的归宿就是垃圾箱,本人是香港籍英国公民。

let freedom ring everywhereJan 29th, 18:32
War usually results from changes in relative power among countries. As long as America has been the unquestioned leader of the unquestioned dominant global alliance, the smaller scale ascent or descent of other countries might create tensions but not lead to direct conflict. Breaking the international systems the US helped design after WWII, and which it has essentially ruled for two generations, would take the lid off the kettle and make armed conflict among many other countries more likely. Brexit, if it leads to a weakening or fragmentation of Europe, would certainly do the same.
America First has come to mean "screw you, world" but what it should mean is, "join us, world, and we'll all be better off". But this means healthy interactions, commercial transactions, transfers of funds and some groups winning or losing in any particular situation. I think Trump understands this but he wants his base to think the situation is much simpler than it really is. So he's riding a horse backwards in the wrong direction.

战争往往源于各国相对权力的变化。在无可争议的占支配地位的全球联盟中,只要美国仍是无可争议的领导者,其他国家的小幅兴衰也许造成紧张趋势,但不会导致直接冲突。国际体制是在美国的帮助下建立的,并被美国统治了约60年,如果这一体制被打破,矛盾将全面爆发,许多国家爆发武装冲突的可能性大增。如果脱欧运动导致欧洲衰落或四分五裂,结果也必将如此。

“美国优先政策”意味着“让世界滚蛋吧”,但它本应该意味着“让世界加入我们,大家会过得更好”。但这需要合理的交流、商业交易、转拨资金、某些组织在特定情况下会获胜或失败。我觉得特朗普明白这点,但他想让追随者觉得情况比实际要简单得多,所以走了南辕北辙的错误路线。

Palinkain reply to let freedom ring everywhereJan 30th, 13:27
The system the US 'helped design' started with the first and so far only use of a nuclear bomb dropped on 2 Japanese cities. It continued with cutting Korea in half, the Vietnam war, followed by other interventions, including wars and coups, resulting in brutal military dictatorships in the 5 corners of the globe, all in the name of 'defending freedom and democracy'.
This 'world order' based on American dominance clearly failed. It is time to replace it with another, based on cooperation, as opposed to confrontation, mutual respect and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

所谓美国“帮忙设计”的国际体制,始于前无古人后无来者的向两座日本城市投放原子弹,接着把朝鲜一分为二,发动越南战争,对他国进行干预,包括战争和政变,导致全球5个地区出现残暴的军事独裁统治,这一切都是打着“维护自由与民主”的幌子干的。基于美国主导的“世界秩序”明显失败,是时候用基于合作、互信、不干涉他国内政的新秩序取而代之了。

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